Politics Today

There is no gainsaying the fact that today bears all the trappings of doomsday for the people of Bayelsa State. Virtually all pre-election predictions made before the election has indicated the likelihood of outbreak of violence. The people of the state would have enjoyed a respite if the election had ended on its first official date of December 5. In fact, the experience they had on December 5 is partly responsible for the fear that hangs over the state in respect of today’s supplementary election.

Instead of an election, the December 5 was a day for battle. A simple democratic exercise was turned into warfare. Guns boomed, bullets flew and many top government officials became endangered species. Ex-militants returned to the creeks and became their old selves; undermining the presidential amnesty granted them just to deliver for their candidates.

The Minister of State for Agriculture, Senator Heineken Lokpobiri, escaped death by a whisker. Militants, operating in gunboats, besieged his house in Ekeremor Town, Ekeremor Local Government Area and held him hostage. The gunmen who shot ceaselessly riddled his house with bullets, collapsing part of the fence of his gate.

Violence also swept across Nembe, Yenagoa, Brass, Sagbama and Ogbia local government areas. Serious monetary inducements were used to procure votes. A party was reported to have paid about N20,000 for every vote it got.

While the results of other bloody elections were upheld by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), the commission, acting under pressure, cancelled the result of the election in Southern Ijaw Local Government Area even though it was held a day later than other parts of the state did. As the Returning Officer announced the following Monday afternoon that he was waiting for the results of the election in Southern Ijaw to declare the winner of the governorship election, the Resident Electoral Commissioner (REC), Mr. Baritor Kpagir, dropped the shocker. He said the election in Southern Ijaw had been cancelled. The pronouncement rendered the election inconclusive.

The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and its candidate, Governor Seriake Dickson, popped champagne to celebrate the cancellation of the election while the All Progressives Congress (APC) and its standard bearer, Chief Timipre Sylva, vehemently kicked against it, describing it as a dark day for democracy.

Sylva, who said the cancellation was procured by the PDP, initially insisted that the Southern Ijaw results must either be released or other areas such as Ekeremor, Nembe, Sagbama, Yenagoa and Ogbia where elections were marred by violence and irregularities be cancelled.

Southern Ijaw Local Government Area has 425 polling units and 120,827 voting population, the second largest concentration of voters after Yenagoa Local Government Area. Sylva believed that if the result of Southern Ijaw had been announced, he would have won the election.

In fact, the cancellation generated much bad blood and led to accusations and counter accusations of bribery and compromise. Following the hullabaloo, INEC called a stakeholders’ meeting, deliberated on the circumstances that led to the cancellation and decided that a supplementary election to decide the winner be held today.

Therefore, today’s poll is a battle royale between Sylva and Dickson.

Facts about the rerun

Today’s poll will hold not just in Southern Ijaw but also in 112 polling units spread over six of the seven local government areas where results have already been declared. All the affected units have 36,663 registered voters. This is aside Southern Ijaw, which has a total voting population of 120,827.

Therefore, there are about 157,490 votes for grabs today, depending on the number of permanent voter cards (PVCs) and the turnout of voters. Southern Ijaw is said to have about 100,000 collected PVCs following the last continuous voter registration exercise. Pundits believe that the election is not over yet.

The candidate of the PDP and Governor of the state, Mr. Seriake Dickson, is going into the election with some advantages. He is leading Sylva with 33,150 votes. The margin of victory of the governor and the PDP will be closed or widened as he stands a chance of either extending his lead in six out of the seven councils he won or losing some of the local government areas to Sylva and the APC.

In Ogbia, the local government area of former President Goodluck Jonathan, based on results already declared by INEC, Dickson and the PDP polled 13,051 votes while Sylva and the APC scored 9,106; a marginal difference of 3,945 votes The supplementary election will hold in 27 polling units in Ogbia with a voting population of 5,816 votes. Sylva will be fighting to reclaim the council.

In Yenagoa, elections will hold in 16 polling units which have about 8,383 registered voters. Observers’ calculations show that the APC can only narrow the lead of PDP since the number of votes to be cast is less than the margin of difference between the PDP and the APC. The PDP scored 24,258 votes against the APC which got 14,563 votes; a difference of 9,695 votes. So, while Dickson will deploy his strategies to extend his lead, Sylva will be struggling to close the margin of difference.

Ekeremor, the local government area of the Minister of State for Agriculture, Senator Heineken Lokpobiri, there will be election in 44 polling units which have about 13,910 votes. APC will approach the election with determination to win the council. In the results already declared, PDP scored 14,602 votes to defeat the APC which polled 7,918, a difference of 6,684 votes.

In Nembe, election will hold in 13 polling units which have about 4,294 votes. The outcome of the December election showed that PDP scored 10,764 votes to defeat the APC which got 6,974 votes; a difference of 3,790 votes.

Brass and Sagbama local government areas are two extreme cases. While the APC won Brass, the Local Government Area of Sylva, by landslide, polling 21,755 to defeat the PDP which scored only 6,512, the PDP won Sagbama, the local government area of Dickson, with whopping 28,934 votes to win the APC which could only poll 5,382.

But there will be no election in Kolokuma/Opokuma because the election in the area where the PDP won the APC with only 700 votes was adjudged peaceful. No polling unit was cancelled.

Southern Ijaw is the local government area that holds the ace. It is more crucial to the APC than the PDP. It is the reason why the election in the state was declared inconclusive. The APC sees the area as its stronghold. Both Sylva’s running mate, Elder Wilberforce Igiri, and APC Chairman, Chief Tiwe Oruminighe, hail from Southern Ijaw. Therefore, the APC believes that the area will produce the number of votes it needs to defeat the governor. In fact, the party contends that if the result of the December 6 election it got from the area had been announced, it would have defeated the PDP.

But the PDP also says the zone is its stronghold. It contends that nothing will stop it from winning the council since the Speaker of the state House of Assembly, Mr. Kombowei Benson, hails from there. Besides, the party said other members of the House of Assembly from the area and all the appointees of the governor in the area will helps it to secure victory.

Indications of violence

All is not well in Bayelsa. Ahead of the poll, strange faces have flooded the state. Most of them are vibrant youths waiting to be deployed by politicians to deliver their candidates. The police have already arrested five thugs believed to be members of the PDP who were allegedly planning to attack the house of former President Goodluck Jonathan.

Explosives suspected to be dynamites were thrown into the house of the Speaker of Bayelsa State House of Assembly, Mr. Kombowei Bemson, at his hometown in Korokorosie, Southern Ijaw. No life was lost. Unknown gunmen also fired gunshots at the home of an APC chieftain in Yenagoa.

In fact, APC and PDP have engaged each other in verbal war. Dickson had fired the first salvo at a forum the PDP described as world press conference. There have been accusations and counter accusations between the two parties that arms were being stockpiled and thugs and militants were being hired.

Dickson accused Sylva and his political associates, including the Minister of State for Agriculture and Rural Development, Heineken Lokpobiri, of stockpiling arms ahead of the election. He told the Federal Government that it would be laying a foundation for insurgency similar to Boko Haram in the state if it allowed non-state actors to bear arms and compromise the security of Bayelsa.

Dickson also warned President Muhammad Buhari-led Federal Government against the use of the Department of State Security (DSS) and the Nigerian Police Force for selfish political gains.

He said: “I have raised question on the aberrations by some officials of the Federal Government institutions. They should stop using the Federal Institutions to serve personal purposes.

“Don’t destroy the credibility of the Institutions on the altar of personal ambitions. The institution’s integrity is called to question and democracy is destroyed.

As expected, Sylva responded immediately, saying the PDP and its candidate had perfected a plot to disrupt today’s supplementary election. Sylva said Dickson was massively deploying instrument of violence to cause mayhem in Southern Ijaw and other units in local government areas across the state to create an atmosphere of fear and discourage voting.

The APC candidate said Dickson and his party had mapped out a strategy of dry voting since, according to them, they were no longer in need of votes to win the poll. Sylva asked security agencies to beam their searchlight on the alleged violent activities and preparations of Dickson ahead of the poll, adding that the governor should be stopped from further causing violence in the state.

Describing Dickson as a warmonger and alleging that the governor had violent antecedents, the APC standard bearer said: “The governor doesn’t look like a man of peace. It is only a warmonger who will beat up a chairman of a local government area because the chairman could not deliver his council to him. Let us watch out and resist Dickson. Let all Bayelsans go out and stop him. .

Nation